As all eyes focus on Ukraine and President Putin, the French election approaches in the wings. The result may shake Europe and the world if the outcome is not the expected reelection of President Macron.
For the first round, the recent standings are the following, according to IFOP, a respected polling institute:
- Macron (Centre): 26%
- Marine Le Pen (extreme-right): 16.5%
- Eric Zemmour (extreme-right): 16%
- Valerie Pécresse (right, conservatives): 15%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon (left, populist): 11%
- Yannick Jadot (Greens): 5%
- Others left: 8%
- Others extreme-right: 1.5%
As only two candidates can move on to the second round, there is a serious uncertainty, not about Macron, who seems sure to move forward, but about his future challenger.
If people vote on the second round as they did in 2017, 48% of Pecresse voters will support Macron (it would represent 7.2 % of the voters), 20% will give their vote to the extreme-right contender (3.2 % of the votes), and 17% will abstain (3%).
If voters on the left and Greens follow what Melenchon voters did last time, 52% will support Macron (12% of voters), 7% will vote for the extreme-right opponent (2% of the voters), and 24% will abstain (6%).
The result could be that Macron would get 45.2 % of the voters in the first round against 43.2% for the extreme-right candidate, which is a tight race. But, considering the distaste developed on the left against Macron, which will lead to more abstentions and fewer votes for Macron, along with the growing support among the conservatives for an alliance with the extreme-right, Macron could very well lose. The extreme-right could be victorious.
There is also a possibility that more people on the left vote for Melenchon, the populist leader. He received almost 20% of the votes during the last presidential election due to his remarkable performance during the campaign. He has progressed in recent weeks, and if he continues, he may be Macron’s challenger for the second round. That would be a serious threat for Macron, as Melenchon is the best debater among the candidates, Macron included, and the second-round debate has until now made the election.
There is also a slim possibility that the conservative candidate finds a way to recover from her present low level of support due to internal opposition in her party and Macron’s maneuvers to get the support from her voters. But, that seems to be a lost cause, as she loses voters every week.
Just a reminder: Le Pen, Zemmour, and Mélenchon want to leave NATO, support Putin, and are eurosceptics. Their election may be an even bigger event than a war in Ukraine.
