With the elections just around the corner, Italy will begin the upcoming fall with a new government in place. Even though it now seems that a center-right coalition will receive most of the votes, left parties still have time to reverse the situation.
Currently, Italy is ruled by a national unity government with a broad coalition consisting of all parties in the legislature, which was formed in February 2021 during the Covid-19 pandemic.
Italians will be called to vote on the 25th of September, with the choice between a center-right coalition and several left-wing parties. The center-right coalition, likely to win according to the polls, is composed of three parties: Brothers of Italy, the League, and Forza Italia. On the left are three main parties: the Democratic Party, the 5 Star Movement, and the coalition Action-Italia Viva.
The gas crisis
During the past several months, the electoral campaign has been heavily influenced by the Russo-Ukrainian war, and as a consequence, the scarcity and increasing cost of gas, which is one main energy source for Italy. As in the rest of the European Union, the Italian government had to find a new way to replace its gas supplies quickly and started to look for new markets in North Africa. In particular, they came to an agreement with Algeria, which has now become its primary partner for gas supplies.
But despite these efforts, Italy is still highly reliant on Russian gas, and it will take years before it can reach full independence from it. So, as in many other countries, the Italian government is looking for a few ways to reduce gas consumption. These ideas include reducing the temperature inside offices and houses from 20℃ to 19℃ during the winter and opening two new gas terminals.
Meanwhile, most Italian entrepreneurs are trying to deal with the incredibly high bills, which in some cases turned out to be seven times higher than last year. As a result, some business owners decided to expose their bills in their shops to raise awareness, while others chose to stay closed for an extended period during the summer holiday.
Relations with Russia, a key to the coming elections
Given the situation in Ukraine, the attitudes of the main political parties towards Russia have become fundamental in the electoral campaign. While in the past, all parties in the center-right coalition maintained a strong relationship with Russia and its leader, they quickly changed their attitude following the invasion of Ukraine.
In particular, Giorgia Meloni, the leader of the populist Brothers of Italy, has publicly stated that the Italian government needs to support the EU sanctions against Russia even though her party has always maintained a close bond with Russia. The other two parties in the center-right coalition condemned Russia’s invasion but did not fully agree with all EU decisions.
For instance, Matteo Salvini, leader of the League, considered a far-right politician and rival of Meloni, stated that the EU sanctions are useless and too harmful for the Italian population. The League, together with the 5 Star Movement on the left, is also against supplying weapons to Ukraine.
On the other hand, the leader of the Democratic Party, Enrico Letta, is a fervent supporter of the EU and its sanctions against Russia but it is still unclear whether he’s in favor of the supply of weapons.
Taxation, the other hot topic for the elections
Another important issue that has highly influenced this electoral campaign is the matter of taxes. While most parties agree that entrepreneurs should be able to pay fewer taxes, especially given the gas price increase, leaders on the right and left disagree on how to do so.
Two parties of the right coalition, Forza Italia and the League, are currently in favor of a flat tax, consisting of taxation of 15% for every entrepreneur earning from 0 to €100,000 per year. On the left, the Democratic Party strongly criticized the flat tax and promised to lower the taxes for the small and middle industries.
The Eurosceptics in the lead
According to the latest polls, Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy will win the elections with a majority of 24.8% of the votes, followed by the Democratic Party with 22.3% and the League with 12.5% votes, giving a victory to the right.
Giorgia Meloni, an Italian journalist and politician, with very conservative views, who opposes gay civil partnerships or marriages and same-sex parenting, has tried in the last months to avoid confrontations. She has not repeated that she considers Benito Mussolini “a good politician, the best in the last 50 years” as she declared in 1996.
If elected, she will become the first woman to serve as the Prime Minister of Italy. She has been strongly Eurosceptic but has promised that Italy would stay in the European Union and keep the euro as its currency. She may, however, be bad news for the European Union as she praises the Hungarian leader Viktor Orban in his conflict with the European leadership.
On the other hand, if the Democratic Party unexpectedly wins, its leader Enrico Letta will have to find another party, most likely from the left, with whom to share the country’s governance.
Regardless of who will receive the majority of the votes, it seems clear that Italy will continue promoting the EU sanctions against Russia and work to identify new ways to reach complete independence from its gas supplies.
